會用這個古老的英文書目當封面只是因為覺得有點像Harry Potter某一集… |
閱讀The Disciplined Trader™: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas(台譯:紀律的交易者)一書,嚴格來說學不到什麼高深的投資心法或技巧,它的價值建立在一場讀者與自己的對話。因為本書提出的理念就是了解自己→定義規則→執行規則,至於規則是什麼,因人而異(*),因為每個人的籌碼不一,能承受的風險壓力本來就不一樣。
在簡短的主動投資經驗過程中,Value Investing → Buy and Hold一直是我堅持的投資方式。惟信心不堅,在投機股票(SPAC / Meme / 雞蛋水餃股)大流行的時候,隨便買隨便賺,即使股票體質不好,也會自動自發的幫所選的股票找理由,然後越賠越買,最後躺平。這個時候紀律的交易者這本書映入我的眼簾,覺得很有收穫。因為本書很薄,所以我挑了英文版本閱讀,底下感想若理解有誤,還請大家包含。
(*)本書是有提及明顯的規則數字,如跌幾%就要賣掉,但因為公司性質的不同,我不覺得能通用,需要持股的投資者自行判斷。
CHAPTER 1 - Why I Wrote This Book
..., from my trading experiences, observations, and research, I have discovered that all traders—both winners and losers—seem to share some very common experiences. Either in the beginning or at some point early in their trading career, all traders experience confusion, frustration, anxiety, and the pain of failure. The few traders who pass through this phase to accumulate wealth are those who eventually confront and work through some very difficult psychological issues about what it means to be a trader, and this process of realization and change normally takes several years, even for the best of them.
感想:作者認為大部份股市交易者,無論是的贏家或是輸家,在投資生涯的早期,都背負著心理壓力。會列出這一點是因為我早期採指數型投資,所以沒有感受過任何壓力;主動投資的初期又遇到大順風,不但沒有壓力,還巴不得所有現金都投進去;逆風時,看著利潤逐漸歸零,雖然沒蝕到本,但那種感覺不會是快樂。
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This confidence would naturally develop as people learned to trust themselves to do whatever needed to be done, without hesitation. As a result of this kind of self-trust, they would no longer need to fear the seemingly unpredictable and erratic behavior of the markets. However, the main point I am making here is that the process of change that took place was in the mental environment and psychological makeup of each individual trader; the markets didn’t change, the tools that were used didn't change, the trader did.
作者認為當投資者個人的心法或是紀律建立起來後,就能有信心去面對無法預期的外部環境。因為會一直改變的其實是投資人本身的心理。
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..., the learning process and the kind of personal transformation that was necessary to enable me to write this book was distinctly different from the kind of learning process I experienced as a trader to realize why a book like this needed to be written. One learning process was chosen and the other was forced.
What I mean by forced is, I had to lose my house, my car, and practically everything else I owned to learn some of the ways in which I needed to change my perspective to operate in the trading environment effectively. Losing all my possessions was a complete life-altering experience, an experience that taught me a lot about the nature of fear and the debilitating effects it has on a person’s ability to trade effectively.
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Why deal with anything if the next trade can make you rich? All the traders I knew, including myself, were affected by this type of “big-trade” mentality. In fact, my big-trade mentality was so pervasive that I would refuse to take profits of $500 or $750 in many trades even when I knew that’s all there was to be made. This may sound absurd, but I wouldn't take profits of such small amounts, because, at that time, it felt as if the market was insulting me by offering such paltry sums compared to what I needed or expected.
感想:曾經是少年股神的作者曾經在爆富之後也因因投資失利走向破產。讓我想起市場順風的時候,我甚至把部份投機/跟風的股票當彩券,就算每日產生的小額的損失我也不在乎,因為本夢比好高的,每天打開帳戶,總額還是上漲 – 但轉為逆風時,就完全不是這麼一回事了……即使我有作風險控管,即使這些投機股票的佔比不到我總金額的5%,但損失的事實,不會改變。
自我反省時,甚至我覺得靠著Lifeismoney版省下一些小錢的我,根本愚蠢。
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CHAPTER 2 - Why a New Thinking Methodology?
The following typical trading errors have a specific cause rooted in a thinking methodology that can be changed.(部份節錄
- Refusing to define a loss.
- Not liquidating (清算) a losing trade, even after you have acknowledged the trade's potential is greatly diminished.
- Getting locked into a specific opinion or belief about market direction. From a psychological perspective this is equivalent to trying to control the market with your expectation of what it will do: “I’m right, the market is wrong.”
- Focusing on price and the monetary value of a trade, instead of the potential for the market to move based on its behavior and structure.
- Not reversing your position even when you clearly sense a change in market direction.
- Not acting on your instincts or intuition.
感想:作者提出一些老生常談的錯誤想法,部份摘錄「感痛身受」的幾點…
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The choice is you can either adapt or continue to experience some very painful lessons. A quick hint: the intensity of your emotional discomfort and pain you experience as a trader is an excellent indication of how much you will have to change to trade without fear and be consistently successful.
感想:交易的過程並非一帆風順,過程中的痛苦都是你成長的來源。雖然看著像是一句廢話,但親身體驗後,才能明白並非虛言。
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CHAPTER 5 - Prices Are in Perpetual Motion with No Defined Beginning or Ending
This is very much different from the market environment where you can be a passive loser. Once you put on a trade, you have to actively participate to end your losses. You don’t need to do anything to continue to lose, and the market could go against your position indefinitely.
感想:這段話個人覺得非常有趣 - 當你投資後,一旦失利,除非主動的去停損,不然這場讓你心痛的旅程,就算歸零,也會留在你的記憶裡,影響你後續的決策,不會結束。。
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CHAPTER 6 - The Market Is an Unstructured Environment
The typical trader will do most anything to avoid creating definition and rules because he does not want to take responsibility for the results of his trading. If he knows exactly what he is going to do and under what conditions, then he would have something by which to measure his performance, thus making himself accountable to himself. This is exactly what most traders don’t want to do, preferring instead to keep their relationship with the market somewhat mysterious.
This creates a real psychological paradox for traders, because the only way to learn how to trade effectively is to make oneself accountable by creating structure; but, with accountability comes responsibility. The typical trader desperately wants to make money, but he has to do it in a way where there is no direct connection between what he does and the outcome that it produces, thereby avoiding responsibility if things don’t turn out satisfactorily.
To develop a plan, you have to anticipate events to some extent relative to the depth of your plan. When you plan your trades in advance, you are putting your vision of the future and creative abilities on the line, so to speak, and making yourself accountable to yourself.
Your plan either works or it doesn’t; you either have the ability to execute your plan or you don't. In any case, it is your plan and your ability to follow it and, therefore, it is difficult to shift responsibility and lay the blame somewhere else if things don’t work out.
感想:記得我有一段時間會不想打開帳戶的App,也就是大家常說的刪App. 我個人認為健康的交易當然不是整天死盯著帳戶或每個標的漲跌,而該是當你願意時,能隨時從容的面對結果,對自己的交易負責。
Now, when a trader doesn't understand market behavior well enough to know what he is going to do and under what market conditions he is going to do it-—but if at the same time, he is very attracted to the action and the opportunities he knows exist and if he is also impatient with the learning process—his impatience and attraction will make him feel compelled to do something, even if he doesn’t know what he should do. How do you think the typical trader will resolve this dilemma? He will play follow the leader, ...
If the prices have made any significant move during or at the end of the trading day, all the crowd followers get together to find any reason or rationale that might explain their (the market's) behavior and put it into some understandable context. However the leaders do not feel compelled to talk to anyone and usually don’t.
For the crowd follower, trading this way serves many functions. It keeps his relationship with the market mysterious. If he makes money, he must have done something right. If he loses money, he can blame the market, which is obviously very acceptable behavior among traders. This way he can maintain an illusion of being rational and responsible and whatever happened to him also happened to a lot of other traders, so at least he knows he is not alone, which then creates a sense of comradeship among competitors.
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When you win it is so pleasurable, it creates a need to repeat it and compels you to try again. When you follow the crowd (instead of anticipating the crowd, which would take planning) or trade off news items, tips, or isolated signals from technical systems, the antic-ipation of the next attempt to win automatically produces fear and anxiety.
Why? Because, you can't define the market conditions or the decision-making process that produced the last win, and so you can’t assure yourself of the next.
If you don't know what you did to win the last time, you obviously don’t know what to do to keep from losing this time. The end result is intense anxiety, frustration, confusion, and fear. You feel out of control, experiencing a sense of powerlessness as you are swept along by the ensuing events and wondering what the market is going to do to you today.
感想:這一段我覺得很寫實,主要是說一般的交易者如果沒有自己的的策略,很容易就跟著所謂的”高手”(ex: 老師、顧問、大大)進行佈局。這樣的作法有很多的”好處”,除了滿足從眾心理之外,另一方面也與自已的交易結果處於一種神秘關係。賺錢的時候當然是因為我是股神,眼光神準,賠錢的時候也”覺得好像”不用對自己的交易負責,反正有人陪著我,我不孤單…。 而真正的老師、大大、前輩、教主,其實只是在與自己對話,他們不理會雜音,只對自己的交易負責。
此外,一旦你跟著你心中的”高手”賺到錢,這份喜悅就會讓你下次交易的時候也採取同樣的策略。這讓我想起2020年末至2021年初期,我追著美股三聖中Elon Musk的每句話與Cathie Wood操盤ARK基金的每筆進出。
CHAPTER 14 - Techniques for Effecting Change
Each choice we make on a conscious level, even just to choose to redirect our thoughts from an inappropriate belief (relative to our needs now), will start to make a neurological change in the electrical circuitry of our brain. If you go as far as to make a choice that is inconsistent with a belief you want to recharge and then act out of that belief, it will eventually lose its power and consequently lose its potential to affect our behavior.
WRITING AS A TECHNIQUE TO EFFECT CHANGE
Every movement we make alters the physical landscape in some way. The more dramatic or expressive our movements, the greater the alterations. By the same token, every thought alters the mental landscape in some way. The more expressive our thoughts, in other words, the more energy we generate in our willingness to think, the greater the potential to effect some change. The change comes from what we are willing to think. Wanting to direct your conscious thought process toward a specific intent is what effects this change. I have found writing is one of the most powerful tools available to focus my thinking and effect some change I desire.
When we write it is a physicalized version of what is going on inside of our mental environment. Your willingness to write about certain issues directs your attention and gives the rest of the parts of your mental environment instructions. What flows up or out of your consciousness is what is there. Once you find out what is there, you can then direct any changes by writing back instructions into the mental environment. This can be a very powerful technique, depending on how much power you put into it.
感想:這一段大抵就是為什麼我撰寫與分享書摘心得文的原因,也是閱讀本書獲得的另一個收穫。除此之外,很多大大們都建議要紀錄自己的交易進出理由,這點我也是很推薦的。即使現在能輕易的從證券商的系統裡查出自己的每筆交易,但它們不會告訴未來的你,為什麼當下作了這些交易,而記憶,是會騙人的。
CHAPTER 15 - The Psychology of Price Movement
The most fundamental component of the markets is traders. Keep in mind that traders are the only force that can act on prices to make them move. Everything else is secondary. What makes a market? Two traders willing to trade, one wanting to buy and one wanting to sell, who agree on a price and then make a trade.
感想:交易市場上最重要的組成就是每個交易者。只愛單機遊戲,不愛線上遊戲的我會進行交易,會不會無形之中,其實我參與了一場全球最大的放置型手遊?
CHAPTER 16 - The Steps to Success
Nothing’s worse than missing a “perfect” opportunity. However, if you could have, you would have; it’s that simple. The sooner you accept this, the sooner you will be able to take advantage of these missed opportunities instead of beating yourself up over them. Besides there really isn’t anything to miss because the markets are in perpetual motion and will continue to be until everyone agrees on value. As long as the price keeps changing, there will always be another opportunity.
感想:選定好標的後,我通常會為標的物設下目標價。通常這會有三種結果,錯過好標的/成功抄底/估值錯誤,越攤越平。最理想的情況也許是成功抄底,但如果是第一種情況,我覺得本文提供了一個很好的心態,除非很有信心,別追高,讓我們耐心遇見下一次的"完美"吧!
STEP TWO: DEALING WITH LOSSES
Execute your losing trades immediately upon perception that they exist. When losses are predefined and executed without hesitation, there is nothing to consider, weigh, or judge and consequently nothing to tempt yourself with. There will be no threat of allowing yourself the possibility of ultimate disaster. If you find yourself considering, weighing, or judging, then you are either not predefining what a loss is or you are not executing them immediately upon perception, in which case, if you don’t and it turns out to be profitable, you ate reinforcing an inappropriate behavior that will inevitably lead to disaster. Or if you don’t and the loss worsens, you will create a negative cycle of pain that once started will be difficult to stop. The next error after letting a loss get out of hand is usually not taking the next opportunity, which invariably is always a winning trade. After which, we get so angry at ourselves for passing up that opportunity that we make ourselves susceptible to any number of other trading errors, like taking a trade that was a tip from another trader, which invariably is always a loser.
感想:作者除了建議交易者培養勇於面對虧損的心理之外,也鼓勵交易者在造成預期損失後,迅速的處理虧損,以免養成錯誤的習慣,最終導致更多的損失。
STEP THREE: BECOMING AN EXPERT AT JUST ONE MARKET BEHAVIOR
Keep in mind that since the market is in perpetual motion, it puts you in a position of having to make never-ending assessments of the current risk in relationship to the current possibilities for reward. To do this effectively, you will have to learn to observe the market as if you were not in a position.
When you are about to enter into a position, ask yourself, by imagining, what the next five minutes or tomorrow (depending on your time frame) would have to look like to validate your trade, to confirm that the trend is still intact. Then, again, place your orders at the appropriate price in advance of the market's getting there.
感想:購買價格應該考慮的是明天,而不是過往績效。如果覺得往後的你面對這個價格不會後悔,那麼就出手吧!
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如果你看到這裡,可能會覺得都是老生常談或是投資ABC. 但如同我開頭說的,閱讀這本書的價值建立在一場讀者與自己的對話,看英文版對我額外的附加價值只是拉長了這場對話的時間,因為書太薄,才200多頁。對我而言,這場過程是「聽Podcast/ 看Youtube/ 看心得文 / 看投資筆記…」等無法得到的,因為以上的媒介雖然傳達相同的訊息,但太迅速就過去了,這也是現在速食社會看書的價值吧!
拋磚引玉,希望大家在投資的路上都能順心。
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